Market Analysis

09/19/2014 - 14:10
Kira Iukhtenko, FBS Japanese yen was the weakest currency on the past week, falling by almost 2% versus the US dollar. As we expected, the hawkish Federal Reserve meeting offered additional support to the USD/JPY pair. As a result, the greenback jumped from 106.70 to a new 6-year high of 109.50, rallying for a third consecutive week. The pair broke above the 200-month MA for the first time ever. The pair is overbought, look at the impressive MACD divergence on the weekly chart. The bullish...
09/19/2014 - 14:08
By Elizaveta Belugina, FBS Euro had a volatile week, but stayed mostly within the previous range. The TLTRO take-up was lower than expected. The European banks applied only for a bit more than 80B euro in loans from the European Central Bank, while the market expected a reading of about 150B euro and higher. From the overall perspective this is negative for EUR, because it means that the banks don’t want to finance the economy of the euro area. However, there was no big selloff of the single...
09/19/2014 - 14:06
By Kira Iukhtenko, FBS On the past week the market sentiment was defined by the Scottish referendum that took place on Thursday. Scotland has rejected independence with 55% saying "No" and 45% saying "Yes". Markets started pricing in this outcome earlier in the week, so British pound recovered by more than 350 pips in 5 days. Investors will now refocus back to the UK economic fundamentals and to the expected terms of the Bank of England policy tightening. September monetary policy minutes...
09/19/2014 - 14:03
By Elizaveta Belugina, FBS The main event for USD in the past week was the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The central bank reduced QE to $15B a month and aims to end this program of asset purchases in October. Although on the outside the Fed is still cautious about the labor market, it’s making small hawkish adjustments to its policy stance. Janet Yellen stays on track she adopted in Jackson Hole: she admitted that the actions of the Fed will depend on America’s economic performance. USD...
09/18/2014 - 14:25
The disappointing TLTRO didn’t trigger a sizeable decline in EUR/USD. The European banks applied only for 82.6B euro in loans from the ECB, while the market expected a reading above 150B euro. Still, markets are rather calm: the euro zone’s banks are under stress tests the results of which will be released by the end of October, so banks probably don’t want additional burden. Moreover, it’s only the first TLTRO, and there will be other ones in future. On Friday the market will be trading...
09/17/2014 - 09:38
By Mark Jensen EUR/USD keeps trading sideways with a slight upward bias. The market lacks movement ahead of the FOMC meeting (18:00 GMT). On the upside an important level lies at $1.3015 (50% Fibo of the 2012-2014 advance). A recovery above this level will make the bulls stronger targeting $1.3100. Support is located at the bottom of the short-term channel at $1.2930. A fall below will provoke a decline to $1.2850. Have a look at how the major banks are positioned: Credit Suisse placed a limit...
09/17/2014 - 08:35
Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst The pair retraced to 1.6160, formed by the lower H1 cloud border. After that we've seen a strong wave of buying that brought the price tp a weekly high of 1.6310. Market close above 1.6250 is a positive sign. Ichimoku. The H1 picture is positive: bullish Cloud, golden cross. On the H4 the price fixed above the Tenkan and Kijun lines and holds within the Cloud. Bulls could easily target 1.6320 and 1.6360. Technical levels: support – 1.6220, 1.6250; resistance – 1....
09/17/2014 - 08:26
Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst The currency pair is trying to recover some ground. Fix above 1.2920 let the new buyers in, opening the way for a test of 1.3000. However, the bearish pressure still remains high: by the end of the day prices slipped to 1.2960. Ichimoku. The 1.2980-1.3000 is likely to hold the bullish recovery. On the H1 chart the price broke below the Kijun line support. We await for a retest of the 1.2940 support. On the H4 prices are supported by the Tenkan and Kijun lines. Break...

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