Market Analysis

10/24/2014 - 13:43
By Kira Iukhtenko, FBS The US dollar regained ground versus the yen, going into the October 30 FOMC meeting. USD/JPY touched the levels above 108 yen, pulling the majority of sellers out of the market. Weekly close above the 108 figure will completely switch the market into a bullish mode, opening the way for another retest of the 110 figure. Support lies at 107.50/30 and 106.40. The next week promises to be volatile for the pair. Dollar is expected to remain strong at least ahead of the FOMC...
10/24/2014 - 13:41
By Kira Iukhtenko, FBS The current fundamental setup paves the ground for further depreciation of the cable. UK GDP growth slowed down from 0.9% to 0.7% in the III quarter. British public dept increased, while retail sales contracted more than expected. October BOE minutes showed no changes in MPC with 7 out of 9 members voting to leave rates unchanged. The data adds to expectations that the Bank of England will wait at least until after the May general election to start raising interest rates...
10/24/2014 - 13:40
Elizaveta Belugina, FBS EUR/USD has breached the short-term corrective uptrend channel to the downside, and the broad downtrend is now to resume. The levels in the $1.2500 area have once again come in focus. Resistance is at $1.2740 and $1.2850. The euro area released some better-than-expected data during the past week. German PMIs improved, so September decline may be explained by the spike in geopolitical risks. In addition, German 10-year yields are slightly above the US ones, and this is...
10/24/2014 - 13:39
Elizaveta Belugina, FBS It was a rather calm week for the US dollar with no big events to shake the currency. The market’s risk sentiment has improved a bit on the back of slightly more positive figures from China and the euro area. As long as the risk aversion doesn’t spike again, American currency will have better chances against lower yielding currencies like JPY and CHF. The most important event of the next week will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. We expect the Fed to end QE3 as it has...
10/24/2014 - 12:21
By Kira Iukhtenko, FBS The US dollar regained ground versus the yen, going into the October 30 FOMC meeting. USD/JPY touched the levels above 108 yen, pulling the majority of sellers out of the market. Weekly close above the 108 figure will completely switch the market into a bullish mode, opening the way for another retest of the 110 figure. Support lies at 107.50/30 and 106.40. The next week promises to be volatile for the pair. Dollar is expected to remain strong at least ahead of the FOMC...
10/23/2014 - 14:14
EUR/USD hit our first target at $1.2625. Better than expected euro zone PMIs supported the pair, but there’s potential for lower euro as the ECB will release the bank stress tests results on Sunday. Resistance is at $1.2700 and $1.2740. Downside targets lie at $1.2605. A break lower will lead the pair to $1.2585 and level in the $1.2500 area. On Friday watch German GfK consumer climate and US new home sales. GBP/USD continues forming a local high at $1.6185: the pair tested the 1.6000 mark in...
10/22/2014 - 14:15
We have entered the market selling EUR/USD at $1.2685 (100-period MA on H4). Stop is at $1.2735, take profit 1 is at $1.2625, take profit 2 is at $1.2585. The pair has eroded support of the corrective upside channel, but the odds are of sideways trading above October lows. US inflation increased in Sep. – a USD-bullish factor. The market is now waiting for the euro zone’s PMIs on Thursday. Data will likely show that the deterioration in the region’s economic activity. We are also thinking about...
10/21/2014 - 14:19
EUR/USD was rejected by resistance in the $1.2830/50 area. Support is in the $1.2730/15 zone. Tomorrow once again there won’t be important data releases in the euro area. Note though that soon the picture will become more interesting. The market will probably start worrying about the region’s PMIs due on Thursday. Another source of concerns may be the results of the bank stress tests due on Sunday. We still recommend selling on the increases up to $1.2950/3000. The support of the channel lies...

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