Market Analysis

05/22/2015 - 13:56
The US Dollar has recovered some ground on the past week, supported by the stable CPI index. However, the market still lacks a strong driver to buy the greenback. FOMC meeting minutes showed the members still believe the economy remains too weak for a rate hike in June. Market expectations switched to the October-December range. On the new week, the market will be focused on the Q1 GDP second estimate on Friday. Experts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the reading to be reviewed to -0.9%. If it...
05/22/2015 - 06:18
US Dollar slowed its recovery on Thursday. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes took the June rate hike off the table as most of the members believe the economy remains too weak. On Friday, States are scheduled to release its CPI at 12:30 GMT. Consumer prices are expected to have stayed in a green zone in April (+0.1% vs. +0.2% in March). Fed’s Chair Yellen will deliver a speech at 17:00 GMT (comments on the US economic outlook are expected). EUR/USD has support at 1.1050: a close below this level...
05/21/2015 - 07:17
Open positions:* USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 120.80, TAKE PROFIT 122.03, STOP LOSS 120.19 AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7955, TAKE PROFIT 0.8164, STOP LOSS 0.7858 USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2200, TAKE PROFIT 1.2352, STOP LOSS 1.2128 EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7014, STOP LOSS 0.7320 GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 187.30, TAKE PROFIT 190.40, STOP LOSS 185.94 NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7425, TAKE PROFIT 0.7192, STOP LOSS 0.7390 Trade signals: EUR/USD: SELL at 1.1166, TAKE PROFIT 1.0994, STOP LOSS 1....
05/21/2015 - 07:04
The US dollar extends recovery for a third day in a row. On Thursday, we’ll watch the US unemployment claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index (forecast – rise to 8,3). EUR/USD tested 1.1060 on Wednesday, falling below the 100-day MA at 1.1160. Fix below 1.1060/50 would open the way for a decline to 1.0700. Greek problems remain a bearish factor for the euro. Watch the European PMI indices on Thursday – activity is expected to decline a little. Later in the day, the ECB will release its...
05/19/2015 - 15:07
EUR/USD slid below the 100-day MA at 1.1175. Support lies at 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000. The pair was under attack from both sides: the euro was weakened by the comments of the ECB board member about the asset purchases in May and June and bad figures from Germany, while the US dollar was strengthened by the unexpectedly good American housing market data. On Wednesday the Fed will release minutes of its April meeting. We don’t expect the central bank to signal a June rate hike, but once again...
05/19/2015 - 07:37
The US dollar weakened last week as the series of worse than expected economic data from the US continued. At the beginning of the new week American currency experienced some correction. EUR/USD slid to 1.1380 after it had found resistance at 1.1450. Traders were taking profits as the euro approached the key level of 1.1500. In addition, concerns about Greece have increased as the nation’s financial position is extremely fragile. On Tuesday watch the release of German ZEW economic sentiment...
05/08/2015 - 08:14
The market’s attitude towards the US dollar has dramatically deteriorated in comparison with the hopes seen at the beginning of the week. ADP employment report missed the forecast, especially taking into account the fact that the previous reading was revised to the downside. The unemployment claims released on Thursday, however, came lower than expected (265K vs. 277K) – this is the main source of hope for the USD bulls ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls. NFP is expected to show gain of 227K jobs...
05/07/2015 - 07:19
The US Dollar came under bearish pressure on Wednesday – preliminary April NFP from ADP came well below the forecast (159K versus 199K expected). What’s more, the March reading has been revised to the downside to 175K. Market expectations for the Friday’s NFP release are turning more and more negative, weighting on the greenback. We’ll watch the unemployment claims figure on Thursday (forecast – slight increase). North-American currency is expected to stay under pressure until the end of the...

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