Market Analysis

08/28/2014 - 13:47
Key market drivers for August 29 (Friday): NZD: ANZ Business Confidence (01:00 GMT) EUR: CPI Flash Estimate, Unemployment Rate (09:00 GMT) CAD: GDP (12:30 GMT) USD: Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending (12:30 GMT), Chicago PMI (14:00 GMT) Trade ideas EUR/USD remains range bound. The pair tested Friday’s low at $1.3220, but then returned to $1.3170. The combination of weaker data from the euro area (German inflation has slowed down, Spanish CPI fell more than expected) and better figures...
08/26/2014 - 13:27
D1. The pair hasn’t overcome an important level 6/8(1312.50), but has gone already below 5/8(1281.25). The intersection of CTD1 and CTW1 is getting close. Then we’ll be able to talk about working out a possible pattern of 8/8 – 4/8 – 7/8 – 0/8, but at the moment the first target is the level of 4/8(1250.00). H4. Price has been trading in the oversold territory for a short time between the levels 0/8 (1281.25) and -1/8 (1273.44). After the break above CTH4 and intersection of CTH4 with CTD1,...
08/26/2014 - 13:26
EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3200 area. The pair still hasn’t closed this week’s opening gap. Traders are quite bearish on euro as they expect the ECB to add monetary stimulus, and analysts point at the divergence between the policies of the European Central Bank. Analysts at Barclays say that Draghi’s speech in Jackson Hole marked a turning point in ECB rhetoric as he said that the central bank was prepared to respond with all its “available” tools. Analysts at BNP Paribas expect EUR/GBP to...
08/25/2014 - 11:15
Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst The US dollar remains strong versus the other major currencies. On Monday the pair gaped down below the 1.3200 mark, forming a new minimum below 1.3180. Ichimoku. The H4 indicator turned negative: all the lines are now headed to the downside. Descending Cloud and the active dead cross confirm that the sellers dominate the market. On the hourly chart the price dipped below the Cloud. Tenkan and Kijun formed a dead cross on Friday. We expect the bearish trend to...
08/25/2014 - 11:12
Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst Despite the strong bearish trend, the price consolidated in a narrow sideways range on Friday, holding above the 1.6560 support. At the same time, the 1.6590 resistance limited the upside (lower border of the hourly Ichimoku). On Monday the pair gapped down, forming a new low at 1.6530. Ichimoku. The bearish trend remains strong. Inability to break above the lower H1 Cloud border confirmes the weakness of the bulls. We expect the pair to extend the decline in the...
08/22/2014 - 13:45
By Elizaveta Belugina EUR/USD has touched new minimums of 2014. The pair was driven down mainly by the stronger US dollar. As for the euro area, the region’s composite PMI came lower than forecast confirming the economic slowdown. Although German manufacturing and services indicators were higher than expected, both declined in comparison with the previous month. Still, traders were prepared for worse, and there was some short covering on the oversold single currency by the end of the week. Next...
08/22/2014 - 13:43
During the past week US was strong versus almost all major currencies. The only exception was Australian dollar which was very resilient because of the higher demand for riskier assets. The data released in the US was pretty upbeat. Housing market releases turned out to be all very positive, and the nation’s manufacturing sector expanded in August at the fastest pace in more than 4 years. Consumer price index increased by 2% from July 2013 – that’s a bit lower compared with June readings....
08/22/2014 - 13:36
By Kira Iukhtenko, FBS analyst This week we’ve had two hawkish surprises from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. According to the BoE August policy minutes, 2 MPC members voted for an immediate rate hike, while other 7 voted to keep rates unchanged. Despite low wage growth, policymakers McCafferty and Weale believe that falling unemployment will finally result in acceleration of salary growth. As a result, market expectations for a premature rate hike increased. Theoretically, the...

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