Market Analysis

10/20/2014 - 14:42
EUR/USD lacked momentum on Monday. Resistance area is at $1.2830/50. Support is at $1.2730, $1.2700 and $1.2680. Longs from $1.2700 are possible, though cautious. Shorts are advised above $1.2900. No data from the euro area tomorrow, only the evening existing home sales in the US, so risk sentiment will matter. The general mood seems to be EUR-negative. GBP/USD edged above the $1.6100 mark on Monday, hitting fresh 10-day highs as we write. Great Britain is scheduled to release public sector net...
10/16/2014 - 14:41
EUR/USD spiked down towards $1.2700, but then recovered to $1.2750 area. This time data from the US showed solid growth. The bearish pressure will lift only if the pair rises above $1.2790 (Oct. 9 high). Note that the market is still in doubts about the American economy and the Fed’s policy. The odds are that euro once again tests $1.2700 and $1.2685/60. We’ll consider selling on recoveries to $1.2790. Tomorrow watch the German Bundesbank President Weidmann speech and the US figures, as well as...
10/15/2014 - 14:24
US dollar slumped in all major currency pairs. The market’s confidence in the outperformance of American economy was violently dashed. Retail sales in the world’s leading economy fell, while producer prices declined. It’s a serious blow for the expectations that the Fed will raise rates earlier than expected. Later today the Fed will release its report on the economic conditions – Berge book (18:00 GMT) – and this release will be closely watched as well. Tomorrow there will be more important...
10/14/2014 - 13:28
US dollar is trying to stop its correction down versus the major currencies, but to return to the confident bullish trend it needs good figures from the United States, but the forecasts for tomorrow’s releases are not very optimistic. At 12:30 GMT watch American retail sales, PPI and Empire State Manufacturing Index. EUR/USD fell from $1.2667 to the $1.2650 area on a bunch of very negative data from the euro area. Here’s the support line connecting the lows of the 2 previous weeks, 50% of the...
10/14/2014 - 06:19
Risk sentiment: traders are concerned as global equities decline. S&P500 slid to 5-month low. EUR/USD: fell from $1.2767 to support at $1.2715 ahead of the European data release at 09:00 GMT (negative forecasts). GBP/USD: awaits inflation data at 8:30 GMT, currently sits at $1.6070. AUD/USD: rose testing levels above $0.88 as the People’s Bank of China cut its 14-day repo rate, again spurring hopes of more broad-based easing + iron ore prices stabilized a bit. NZD/USD: pushed a little...
10/09/2014 - 14:34
US dollar remained weaker on Thursday after a day earlier the Fed released dovish FOMC meeting minutes. However, concerns about other economies – primarily the euro area – start to return, and demand for USD on Friday may be higher. EUR/USD reached $1.2790, but then retreated below $1.2750 ahead of Mario Draghi’s speech today at 19:00 GMT as there’s the risk of dovish comments. Support of the current short-term uptrend is located at $1.2690. A decline below this point will make the pair slide...
10/06/2014 - 14:42
EUR/USD found some support around $1.2500 (psychological level, 74.6% Fibo) and recovered a bit on Monday despite bad data from Europe. Data release showed that German factory orders made a sharp decline of 5.7% in August. Sentix Investor Confidence was also negative. At the same time, US dollar is broadly weaker versus its peers as it’s long overbought, and it’s harder for the USD bulls to push up. Tomorrow watch German industrial production (06:00 GMT) and French budget balance (06:45 GMT) –...
09/26/2014 - 13:20
USD/JPY was range bound in the past week: the pair was capped by 109.50 in the upside and supported by 108.50 on the downside. Among the positive factors for this pair we can mention good data from the US and the difference in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. In addition, Japan’s welfare minister said that the reforms of the country’s giant pension fund would continue as planned. It was negative for JPY and positive for USD/JPY, as this fund will likely increase...

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