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Market Analytics
Nomura: USD/JPY forecast revised up
Wednesday, February 22, 2012 - 12:15
Analysts at Nomura revised up their forecast for USD/JPY from 75 to 79 yen by the end of the first quarter of 2012. The forecasts for the end of Q2 and the year-end were left unchanged at 80 and 81 yen consequently.
The specialists claim that odds that the greenback will resume its decline decreased due to the Bank of Japan’s additional quantitative easing, better US macroeconomic data and easing tensions in the euro area.
Nomura draws investors’ attention to the fact that Japanese central bank decided to increase investment in the government bonds with maturity of 1-2 years. This would cap the possibility of 2-year yield growth. As a result, the yield differential between 2-year US and Japanese securities will increase encouraging USD/JPY. In addition, internal capital flows also point at yen’s gradual depreciation.
Chart. Daily USD/JPY
