Market Analysis

11/17/2014 - 14:40
Hello, dear traders! The new week has started, so we are once again here for you with the daily trading plans. EUR/USD: The pair pushed higher on the wave of short-covering, but failed to fix above 1.2550 for now (38.2% Fibo). We expect the upside to be limited by the 1.2600 figure – this is where the medium-term trend resistance lies. On Tuesday watch German and euro zone’s economic sentiment data at 10:00 GMT (forecasts – upbeat). GBP/USD: The pair started Monday on the positive note, but was...
11/14/2014 - 14:41
Kira Iukhtenko, FBS The past week lacked economic releases in the United States, so buying pressure on the currency calmed down. The new week promises to be more dynamic for the US dollar. Release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday will be at the centre stage. On the October meeting the Fed announced the end of QE and sounded rather optimistic about the economy, so the minutes release could render support for USD. However, we could also get some negative news too. Industrial...
11/14/2014 - 14:40
Kira Iukhtenko, FBS As we expected, euro slowed the downside on the past week, recovering towards the 1.2500 mark. Despite the current consolidation, we stay bearish and expect to see a decline towards the 1.2200 mark in the medium-term. Fix below the 1.2400 support could become a good signal to enter the short market. If the price pushes higher, we recommend selling the rallies towards 1.2650. Data, released on the past week, show that the euro zone’s economy expanded by 0.2% in Q3 – this is...
11/14/2014 - 14:39
By Elizaveta Belugina During the past week USD/JPY was consolidative. Never the less it has managed to capture higher levels above 116. The main topic of the week was whether Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe calls an early election to delay the unpopular second sales tax hike planned on Oct. 2015. Japanese companies hope that the tax increase will be put off. Such expectations drive Japanese stocks up. As USD/JPY tends to follow Japanese stocks, it’s gaining as well. Abe’s decision will be...
11/14/2014 - 14:38
By Elizaveta Belugina GBP/USD had a losing week and technical and fundamental factors show that there will be more declines to come. The Bank of England cut growth and inflation forecasts for the British economy. The nation’s employment data came out mixed: the unemployment rate froze at 6%, though a decline was expected. Average earnings rose, but economists don’t see a trend here. As a result, the expectations of a rate hike in the United Kingdom are pushed further into future. The UK will...
11/13/2014 - 15:01
EUR/USD remains in a short-term triangle: on Thursday the price pushed higher to 1.2470. In our view, the triangle will likely be broken to the downside. The market setup remains bearish as long as the 1.2500 resistance holds. Next resistance lies in the 1.2650/2700 area, but for now we don’t see any fundamental reasons for a sustainable growth. Euro zone is scheduled to release preliminary Q3 GDP data on Friday (6:30-10:00 GMT) and final October CPI at 10:00 GMT. GBP/USD is now close to our...
11/13/2014 - 08:23
There’s a speculation that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will postpone the second sales tax hike to avoid damaging a fragile economic recovery. Abe is expected to make the decision on the tax increase after Japanese Q3 GDP figures come out on Monday. The dominating view is that the nation’s economy remains shaky after the first sale tax increase in April. If the second rate hike is delayed, this will be a short-term positive factor for Japanese stock market and, consequently, for USD/JPY. In the...
11/12/2014 - 15:02
EUR/USD remains in the narrow 1.2390/2500 range after having hit a 2-year low of 1.2350 on the past week. The near-term picture remains bearish as long as the 1.2500 mark holds. Break higher could open the way for more corrective recovery to 1.2650. Decline below 1.2400 would pave the ground for more aggressive selloff with a medium-term target of 1.2200. Euro zone’s economic calendar on Thursday is empty, but the euro is expected to stay under pressure ahead of the Friday’s data. The attempts...

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