Market Analysis

09/16/2014 - 15:09
By Kira Iukhtenko, FBS analyst Last week the British pound was dragged to a 10-month low versus the US dollar, pressured mostly by the Scotland Independence Referendum fears. This week is eventful in the United Kingdom. Inflation data on Tuesday, BOE minutes and employment data on Wednesday, Scotland referendum and retail sales data on Thursday. September policy meeting minutes will be an important release for the markets. Despite the risk of Scotland leaving the UK, the BOE seems to maintain...
09/16/2014 - 15:07
By Kira Iuchtenko, FBS analyst The US dollar recorded several 6-year highs against the Japanese currency, pushed higher by an increasing gap in the economic trajectory in the US and Japan. These days the markets are ready to pay more than 107 yen per dollar amid expectations of a coming policy tightening in United States. The market is strongly overbought. You should also note that the pair approached the trend resistance, connecting the May and December 2013 highs (currently around 107.50)....
09/16/2014 - 15:06
By Elizaveta Belugina Last week EUR/USD hit a new low at $1.2857, but then closed near $1.2950. All in all, the pair was range bound. It has formed a ‘hammer’ candle on the weekly chart and remains oversold. The selloff of euro has stopped because although the ECB has indicated that it’s ready to do much to encourage inflation, it’s obviously not going to do it soon. We still don’t know the details of the ABS purchase program, and this isn’t going to change until October. As a result, sellers...
09/16/2014 - 15:03
By Elizaveta Belugina Last week US dollar strengthened versus commodity currencies – Australian, New Zealand’s & Canadian dollars. The greenback’s rally versus Japanese yen also continued. At the same time, British pound has managed to show weekly gain, while euro stabilized. Large speculators reduced long USD bets in the latest period after lifting them to 15-month highs in the previous week. Economic data from the US have so far been mixed. Let’s see what the next week got in store....
09/11/2014 - 11:01
Barclays: holds SHORT from 1.3280, Take Profit 1.2815, Stop loss 1.3438  (Open on Aug 21) CitiFX: holds SHORT from 1.2908, Take Profit 1.2200, Stop loss 1.3200 (Open on Sep 8) Credit Suisse: holds SHORT from 1.2950, Take Profit 1.2790, Stop loss 1.2990 (Open on Sep 5) Morgan Stanley: SELL LIMIT from 1.3040, Take Profit 1.2500, Stop loss 1.3140 (Open on Sep 5)
09/10/2014 - 14:28
Trade ideas EUR/USD recovered from the multi-month low of $1.2850 on Wednesday, but was capped at $1.2960. We remain bearish for the pair and recommend selling the bullish moves. If bulls break above $1.2960, the correction will likely extend to $1.3050 – this is the upper border of the former descending channel. On Thursday the ECB will release its Monthly Bulletin (8:00 GMT). At 19:00 GMT the ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a speech at the Financial Forum 2014 in Milano. GBP/USD has also...
09/08/2014 - 14:21
By Elizaveta Belugina Last week US dollar has made powerful moves up versus euro, British pound, Swiss franc and Japanese yen. At the same time, the greenback was less strong versus commodity currencies, and especially against Australian dollar. Job creation in America hit 8-month low: August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) came at only 142K, while economists expected reading of more than 200K. In our view, one worse NFP release doesn’t change the whole picture and won’t derail the Federal Reserve from...
09/08/2014 - 14:20
By Elizaveta Belugina EUR/USD had a terrible week as it lost about 170 pips. The pair closed at $1.2950 after hitting $1.2920. Euro was crushed the European Central Bank: despite expectations that it would stay on hold in September, the ECB lowered its benchmark and deposit rates. As the Wall Street Journal puts it, the ECB has entered a global currency war. The central bank wants to increase its balance sheet by 1 trillion euro through fresh loans – TLTROs – and asset-backed securities...

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