According to the monthly survey of 60 banks and analysts conducted by Reuters, the greenback will recover to 82.00 during the next month.
The pair USD/JPY is expected to reach 83.00 in the third quarter and then climb to 85.30 by the end of the year.
The median forecast for the greenback in the first half of 2012 is also positive. Surveyed economists think that US currency will cost 90.00 yen in a year.
Chart. Daily USD/JPY
Tomorrow European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will hold a press conference to discuss monetary policy. It’s recommended to listen if he says “strong vigilance” on inflation and describes the current policy as “accommodative”. If Trichet uses these words, then the analysts and forecasters will be almost sure that the EBC will lift up its benchmark interest rate in July.
Chart. Daily EUR/USD
Technical analysts at UBS have slightly bearish outlook for the greenback versus Swiss franc in the short term. In their view, it’s necessary to watch support at 0.8300. If the pair USD/CHF drops below this level, it will be poised down to 0.8165. According to the bank, resistance for US dollar is situated at 0.8453.
Chart. Daily USD/CHF
Yesterday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called US economic recovery “frustratingly slow”. According to the policymaker, monetary policy still has to be loose as the country’s economy is still underperforming and the unemployment level remains very high. At the same time, the Fed pledged to make all effort to keep inflation under control.
As a result, the interest rates in the US will likely remain extremely low during the extended period of time. However, the Fed’s chief gave no hint...
Analysts at Citigroup studied the correlation between the performance of US dollar and the nation’s economic data during the two years after Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy in 2008.
According to the specialists, the greenback rose and fell inversely to American economy gaining in times of its weakness as investors were buying dollar as a refuge. Then the demand for US currency fell as the Fed’s monetary stimulus programs encouraged the market’s risk appetite.
However, such relationship may be over...
The single currency bounced yesterday from the 1.4564 area representing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of May's decline consolidating just below 1.4700.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the pair EUR/USD is now poised to 1.472 that's the 78.6% retracement level. In their view, euro will likely fail at that point and retreat downwards.
Chart. H4 EUR/USD
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets note that the greenback began correcting upwards versus its Canadian counterpart on April 29 after the pair USD/CAD hit the minimum at 0.9445.
The specialists believe that at the current levels US currency is facing strong resistance, so its further advance will be limited, while the downside risks are increasing.
According to RBC, if dollar closes below the short-term trend line support at 0.9683, the bears will regain control over the market and the corrective...
Analysts at UBS think that although the bears tried yesterday to bring the greenback below 80.00 versus Japanese yen, the pair USD/JPY will be able to hold above the key psychological support level and recover to 90.00 during the next 3 months.
Currency strategists at MIG bank are also looking for US dollar’s rebound. The economists are bullish on the pair in the medium and long term expecting to see the new bullish cycle. In their view, if the greenback closes above 82.00 (post G7 intervention...