Market Analysis

08/25/2014 - 11:15
Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst The US dollar remains strong versus the other major currencies. On Monday the pair gaped down below the 1.3200 mark, forming a new minimum below 1.3180. Ichimoku. The H4 indicator turned negative: all the lines are now headed to the downside. Descending Cloud and the active dead cross confirm that the sellers dominate the market. On the hourly chart the price dipped below the Cloud. Tenkan and Kijun formed a dead cross on Friday. We expect the bearish trend to...
08/25/2014 - 11:12
Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst Despite the strong bearish trend, the price consolidated in a narrow sideways range on Friday, holding above the 1.6560 support. At the same time, the 1.6590 resistance limited the upside (lower border of the hourly Ichimoku). On Monday the pair gapped down, forming a new low at 1.6530. Ichimoku. The bearish trend remains strong. Inability to break above the lower H1 Cloud border confirmes the weakness of the bulls. We expect the pair to extend the decline in the...
08/22/2014 - 13:45
By Elizaveta Belugina EUR/USD has touched new minimums of 2014. The pair was driven down mainly by the stronger US dollar. As for the euro area, the region’s composite PMI came lower than forecast confirming the economic slowdown. Although German manufacturing and services indicators were higher than expected, both declined in comparison with the previous month. Still, traders were prepared for worse, and there was some short covering on the oversold single currency by the end of the week. Next...
08/22/2014 - 13:43
During the past week US was strong versus almost all major currencies. The only exception was Australian dollar which was very resilient because of the higher demand for riskier assets. The data released in the US was pretty upbeat. Housing market releases turned out to be all very positive, and the nation’s manufacturing sector expanded in August at the fastest pace in more than 4 years. Consumer price index increased by 2% from July 2013 – that’s a bit lower compared with June readings....
08/22/2014 - 13:36
By Kira Iukhtenko, FBS analyst This week we’ve had two hawkish surprises from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. According to the BoE August policy minutes, 2 MPC members voted for an immediate rate hike, while other 7 voted to keep rates unchanged. Despite low wage growth, policymakers McCafferty and Weale believe that falling unemployment will finally result in acceleration of salary growth. As a result, market expectations for a premature rate hike increased. Theoretically, the...
08/22/2014 - 13:35
By Kira Iukhtenko, FBS analyst Hawkish US policy minutes and strong data became a long-awaited bullish driver for USD/JPY. Hungry buyers pushed the pair up from 102.30 to 104.00. Let’s try to understand, what’s going on in Japan these days. Weak Japan economic data are raising market skepticism about how effective the Abe economic reforms are. The most troubling question for the currency market is: Will Abe achieve his 2% inflation target after a sales tax increase derailed growth? Next week...
08/20/2014 - 14:15
AUD:  CB Leading Index, HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI EUR: French, German & euro area's Manufacturing & Services PMIs GBP: Retail Sales USD: Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Jackson Hole Symposium Trade ideas US dollar enjoyed solid demand ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes which area due later today (18:00 GMT). Many traders expect that the Fed will confirm improved growth outlook. Still, there’s a risk of “sell the fact reaction”. EUR/USD has...
08/20/2014 - 14:13
The FOMC meeting minutes are due today at 18:00 GMT. Analysts at Standard Chartered think that any hawkish surprise (and, consequently, the positive effect for USD) in the FOMC July minutes is likely to be limited – the hawks already had the Philadelphia Fed President Plosser’s dissent and the accompanying statement. The Fed’s forward guidance is that there will be a “considerable time” between the end of QE and the first rate hike. Standard Chartered says that the key in the minutes will be...

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