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Market Analysis
04/15/2013 - 11:23
Gold extends losses after having dropped by 1000 pips on Friday, breaking a strong support at $1520 (23.5% Fibo). On Monday XAU/USD opened with a gap down and dropped by another 1000 pips to a fresh two-year low of $1385. The pair is testing the 200-week EMA ($1430) and the 50-month EMA ($1410) to the downside.
Slide below $1400 would signal further losses. Next bearish targets lie at $1300 (38.2% Fibo) and $1150. Most analysts expect the bearish correction to deepen further. Сo-founder of the...
04/15/2013 - 08:44
AUD/USD opened the week with a bearish gap, closed it and then plummeted by 100 pips to $1.0420. Aussie dollar dropped following the negative Chinese GDP figures. The pair is now consolidating in the $1.0450/20 range.
Last week AUD/USD’s rally was capped at $1.0585. The pair closed the week slightly above $1.0500.
We still remain bullish for the pair as the national economy remains relatively strong. It would make sense to buy on dips to $1.0385/50. A slide below $1.0350 is needed to confirm...
04/15/2013 - 06:37
EUR/USD is trading sideways in the $1.3080/65 sideways range. Euro dipped below $1.3100, pressured by global slowdown concerns.
Over the past two weeks the single currency rebounded by more than 350 pips from the low of $1.2750 and touched $1.3135 last Thursday. However, analysts at UBS don’t recommend buying the euro even despite its recent strength. They point that the rising euro is raising the prospect of the ECB rate cut. Pay special attention to Mario Draghi’s testimony on Tuesday....
04/15/2013 - 05:31
Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).
Here are the key options expiring today:
EUR/USD: $1.2700, $1.3000, $1.3005, $1.3020, $1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3325;
GBP/USD: $1.5200, $1.5350, $1.5400;
USD/JPY: 97.50, 98.50...
04/15/2013 - 05:27
Weaker-than-expected Chinese data has determined trading picture in Asia. The nation’s GDP came at 7.7% y/y in Q1 (forecast: 8.0%; prev.: 7.9%), while industrial production added only 8.9% in Mar. (forecast: 10.1%; prev.: 9.9%).
USD/JPY opened with a 40-pip gap down and is testing levels below 98.00. Yen rose as safe haven against its main counterparts. The US Treasury Department said on Friday that it would watch Japan to ensure its policies were not aimed at weakening its currency. BOJ...
04/12/2013 - 08:24
USD/CAD recovered to 1.0115 after having dropped by 70 pips to 1.0080 on Thursday on positive US labor market data. The pair slid to the bottom of the daily Ichimoku and closed right on the key 1.0100 support.
A fix below 1.0100 would be a strong selling signal, but for now this level holds the downside. Next support is seen at 1.0080/75 (100-day EMA, 50% Fibo, top of the weekly Ichimoku), 1.0040 and 1.0015. Resistance lies at 1.0140, 1.0200, 1.0215 and 1.0240. A rise above 1.0240 is needed to...
04/12/2013 - 08:17
EUR/USD slipped from the levels around $1.3140/15 to $1.3060. The slide might be caused by the decrease in EUR/JPY which fell below 130.00.
Analysts at SEB bank think that it’s too early to say that euro won’t get higher. In their view, for bears to start gaining control, the pair needs to move back below $1.3040. A slide below this level will likely bring the prices to $1.2970 (23.6% Fibo, 200-period MA on H4).
The market’s waiting for the euro zone’s industrial production data (forecast: +0.3...
04/12/2013 - 07:36
AUD/USD dipped to $1.0530 as risk aversion returned into the markets. On Thursday the pair swung back and forth by 80 pips, first pressured by weak Australian labor data and then supported by strong US unemployment claims. Finally the pair tested a fresh 3-month high of $1.0585, but then headed lower.
We remain bullish in a medium term, but recommend waiting for further clear signals as yesterday’s long legged-candle reveals market uncertainty ahead of the $1.0600 hurdle. A break above this...
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