Market Analysis

09/24/2014 - 13:33
By Mark Jensen Today my review will be technical. I'd like to mention only that USD/CHF is in a rather strong reverse correlation with EUR/USD. This is easily seen фt the charts, and the news from the US are more important for this pair than those from Switzerland. USD/CHF keeps trading in the 0.9400 area (61.8% Fibo of the decline from 0.9800 to 0.8700). Despite the fact that the overall trend is bullish and rather strong, the pair is capped by this mark for the third week: the bulls lack...
09/24/2014 - 13:30
Alex Weber When will the US dollar continue its rally? Let's observe the USD index in pursuit of answers. DXY holds slightly below its 4-year high on Wednesday, pressured by US airstrikes in Syria and by dovish comments of the NY Fed President Dudley. This week he said a stronger currency could hurt the US economic growth. He doesn't fool us!) The strong bullish trend in USD will clearly remain in place. Dollar index hit 84.86 on Monday; this was the highest level since July 2010. Before that...
09/23/2014 - 13:42
By E.Belugina and K.Iukhtenko EUR/USD corrected up to $1.2900. Tomorrow watch German Ifo business climate data at 08:00 GMT. So far data from Germany have been discouraging, and we have little reason to expect a bullish release this time. If the reading is significantly lower, euro will fall to $1.2810. The next resistance is at $1.2930 and if this level is broken in case of the positive news, euro will probably rise to $1.3000 – a place to enter short positions. GBP/USD rose to the upper...
09/19/2014 - 14:10
Kira Iukhtenko, FBS Japanese yen was the weakest currency on the past week, falling by almost 2% versus the US dollar. As we expected, the hawkish Federal Reserve meeting offered additional support to the USD/JPY pair. As a result, the greenback jumped from 106.70 to a new 6-year high of 109.50, rallying for a third consecutive week. The pair broke above the 200-month MA for the first time ever. The pair is overbought, look at the impressive MACD divergence on the weekly chart. The bullish...
09/19/2014 - 14:08
By Elizaveta Belugina, FBS Euro had a volatile week, but stayed mostly within the previous range. The TLTRO take-up was lower than expected. The European banks applied only for a bit more than 80B euro in loans from the European Central Bank, while the market expected a reading of about 150B euro and higher. From the overall perspective this is negative for EUR, because it means that the banks don’t want to finance the economy of the euro area. However, there was no big selloff of the single...
09/19/2014 - 14:06
By Kira Iukhtenko, FBS On the past week the market sentiment was defined by the Scottish referendum that took place on Thursday. Scotland has rejected independence with 55% saying "No" and 45% saying "Yes". Markets started pricing in this outcome earlier in the week, so British pound recovered by more than 350 pips in 5 days. Investors will now refocus back to the UK economic fundamentals and to the expected terms of the Bank of England policy tightening. September monetary policy minutes...
09/19/2014 - 14:03
By Elizaveta Belugina, FBS The main event for USD in the past week was the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The central bank reduced QE to $15B a month and aims to end this program of asset purchases in October. Although on the outside the Fed is still cautious about the labor market, it’s making small hawkish adjustments to its policy stance. Janet Yellen stays on track she adopted in Jackson Hole: she admitted that the actions of the Fed will depend on America’s economic performance. USD...
09/18/2014 - 14:25
The disappointing TLTRO didn’t trigger a sizeable decline in EUR/USD. The European banks applied only for 82.6B euro in loans from the ECB, while the market expected a reading above 150B euro. Still, markets are rather calm: the euro zone’s banks are under stress tests the results of which will be released by the end of October, so banks probably don’t want additional burden. Moreover, it’s only the first TLTRO, and there will be other ones in future. On Friday the market will be trading...

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