Market Analysis

09/10/2014 - 14:28
Trade ideas EUR/USD recovered from the multi-month low of $1.2850 on Wednesday, but was capped at $1.2960. We remain bearish for the pair and recommend selling the bullish moves. If bulls break above $1.2960, the correction will likely extend to $1.3050 – this is the upper border of the former descending channel. On Thursday the ECB will release its Monthly Bulletin (8:00 GMT). At 19:00 GMT the ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a speech at the Financial Forum 2014 in Milano. GBP/USD has also...
09/08/2014 - 14:21
By Elizaveta Belugina Last week US dollar has made powerful moves up versus euro, British pound, Swiss franc and Japanese yen. At the same time, the greenback was less strong versus commodity currencies, and especially against Australian dollar. Job creation in America hit 8-month low: August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) came at only 142K, while economists expected reading of more than 200K. In our view, one worse NFP release doesn’t change the whole picture and won’t derail the Federal Reserve from...
09/08/2014 - 14:20
By Elizaveta Belugina EUR/USD had a terrible week as it lost about 170 pips. The pair closed at $1.2950 after hitting $1.2920. Euro was crushed the European Central Bank: despite expectations that it would stay on hold in September, the ECB lowered its benchmark and deposit rates. As the Wall Street Journal puts it, the ECB has entered a global currency war. The central bank wants to increase its balance sheet by 1 trillion euro through fresh loans – TLTROs – and asset-backed securities...
09/08/2014 - 14:19
By Kira Iukhtenko, FBS analyst USD/JPY hit a 5-year high of 105.70 on Friday, but the weak US non-farm payrolls pulled the pair back to the 105.00 support. Despite the fact that dollar yen closed the week slightly below the January highs, we review the current pullback as temporary and recommend going long on dips. Our next targets lie at 106.40 (200-month MA)and 110.00/110.50. The short-term picture remains bullish as long as the pair holds above 104.80 (trend support). Next levels to watch...
09/08/2014 - 14:13
The current GBP selloff is triggered by the expectations of the Scottish Independence referendum. The vote is scheduled on September 18. The most recent poll released on Sept. 6 showed Scottish separatists gained a majority for the first time. It means that more than a 300-year old United Kingdom stands on the edge of falling apart. Markets are worried about the potential consequences of a «Yes» vote: will Scotland be allowed to use the pound? Will Scotland share the UK debt burden? The closer...
09/05/2014 - 11:13
Exhausted by the yesterday’s ECB-related move, currency traders await the US labor market data on Friday (12:30 GMT). Consensus forecasts are upbeat for all the 3 releases: Key US releases (Sept. 5) The ECB easing announcement made it very clear that monetary policy divergence between the euro zone and the United States is increasing. The Federal Reserve has a clear intention to finish the QE in October and to proceed to raising interest rates afterwards. Of course, the terms are important,...
09/04/2014 - 14:15
Measures ECB cuts benchmark rate from 0.15% to 0.05% Draghi announced the ECB will buy non-financial assets (ABS) Exact ABS purchase volume is under discussion, one of the figures they discussed is 500B euros ECB to extend the balance sheet to 2012 dimensions Decision wasn’t unanimous and rates are now at the lower bound ECB easons to ease Details of the program will be announced after October 2 Euro zone's growth momentum slowed down Draghi points to geopolitical...
09/03/2014 - 14:21
Trade Ideas EUR/USD edged up to $1.3150. On Wednesday the single currency got support on the news that the fire in Ukraine ceased. As for the euro area itself, retail sales contracted by 0.4%. The pair tested levels above the 100-hour MA, but some vague comments from Ukraine won’t be able to drive euro up for long, and more downside is likely ahead of the ECB’s meeting. However, the risk that the ECB will disappoint EUR-bears at the press conference is rather high. The spikes up during Draghi’s...

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