05/17/2012 - 08:00
Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2790, $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.3000; GBP/USD: $1.5850, $1.6100, $1.6200; EUR/GBP: $0.8085, $0.8060, $0.8085;...
05/17/2012 - 08:00
The euro rebounded, paring a four-day decline against the dollar, as the currency’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) fell to 22 yesterday, below the 30 level that some traders see as signaling an asset may reverse direction. Analysts at Bank of America are strongly bearish on EUR/USD in a long term, but expect a little upside correction these days. They recommend entering the trade at $1.2800 with a stop at $1.2870 and targeting at $1.2520. According to analysts, the pair may reach the...
05/17/2012 - 07:45
It seems that the USD/JPY market has no idea where to go – upwards or downwards? The central bank may be hoping to refrain from easing this month in order to have enough firepower in case the euro area goes really bad. Such assumption looks sensible due to the positive data released today: Japan’s preliminary GDP expanded by 1.0% in Q1 after staying unchanged in the final 3 months of 2011. Dai-ichi Life Research Institute underlines, however, that “the timing of further monetary easing would...
05/17/2012 - 06:00
According to FOMC meeting minutes, released on Wednesday, several Fed policymakers said the additional QE may be needed if the economy falls back. In April the central bank said interest rates will stay near zero till late 2014 in order to support the economy. Analysts at CBA claim that the greenback may now “start to stabilize rather than continue to rocket higher”.  In Greece Panagiotis Pikrammenos, head of Greece’s Council of State, the highest administrative court, was sworn in as head of...
05/16/2012 - 13:00
German bond yields fell to 1.47% from previous 1.77% at today’s auction as the Greek problems increase demand on safe assets. However, Germany fell short of the targeted amount (4.1 billion euro vs. expected 5 billion). On a French bond auction yields eased to 1.72% from 1.83% a month ago, showing the markets feel increasingly comfortable with growth-oriented policy of Francois Hollande. France managed to sell 7.9 billion euros out of 7-8 billion expected. On Wednesday EUR/USD has reached a...
05/16/2012 - 12:45
On Wednesday sterling fell to a four-week low after the BoE inflation report showed the prospects for UK GDP growth are “unusually uncertain”. According to BoE, the economy may grow by about 0.8% this year vs. previously expected 1.2%. The inflation is likely to stay above the 2% target at least in the next year. Weak growth and high inflation make the choice of monetary instruments difficult for the MPC. The euro zone’s debt crisis threatens expansion despite the loose monetary policy is...
05/16/2012 - 11:30
Analysts at Bank of America believe that pound’s decline versus the greenback can make futures traders reduce their bullish bets on sterling. Data from Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that GBP/USD longs increased in the week to May 8 to 25K contracts, the maximal level in a year. Now the pair slumped to the levels around $1.5920, and the speculators will have to trim their bullish bets. As a result, negative pressure on British currency will increase driving it down to 200-day...
05/16/2012 - 11:30
Analyst at RBS recommend investors (especially those who currently don’t have position at this market) to take a “wait & see” approach trading EUR/USD. In their view, it’s now too late to rush in the current bearish trend – better to wait until euro tests $1.2624 (2012 minimum, target from the “head and shoulders” pattern) and see whether it holds or gets broken. If the support is breached, the single currency will be vulnerable for a decline to $1.2329 (2008 minimum). As for resistance, it...

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