Market Analysis

05/25/2011 - 13:22
Currency strategists at UBS think that the major bearish trend for US dollar will soon be over. In their view, there are several reasons for US currency to strengthen. Firstly, the specialists expect the recovery of American economy to continue in the second half of the year. Then the end of the Federal Reserve second round of quantitative easing in June will provide a lot of fresh air for the greenback that has been under the pressure of the Fed’s $600 billion bond purchasing program during...
05/25/2011 - 12:48
Even though US currency added 4% since the end of April the world’s best bond fund managers share the negative outlook for the greenback. Analysts at Pimco expect USD to weaken versus range of currencies in emerging markets and selected developed countries such as Australia and Norway. Strategists at OppenheimerFunds note that the long-term economic fundamentals for dollar still look very bad. All in all, the specialists say that though US dollar may rise occasionally, investors will leave the...
05/25/2011 - 11:49
Last week Fitch Ratings cut Greece's rating from BB+ to B+, 4 levels below investment grade. Strategists at Morgan Stanley think that an outright default or restructuring of Greece’s debt is won’t happen this year. Although the specialists aren’t ruling out the potential “reprofiling” of the Greek debt – new term first used by Jean-Claude Junker on May 17 that means the extension on Greek bonds’ maturities. However, such outcome also seems to be unlikely, says Morgan Stanley. Analysts at Credit...
05/25/2011 - 10:33
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the pair EUR/USD is finding support ahead of its 200-day MA at $1.40 and the Cloud base at 1.3975. The specialists regard the current dynamics of the single currency as consolidation. All the attempts of the bulls to move higher were limited by the downtrend resistance line from May 5 maximum at 1.4195 and 1.4305/45. In their view, euro is poised sown to the 1.3770 level representing 38.2% retracement of the advance in 2010-2011. Chart. H4 EUR/USD
05/25/2011 - 10:05
Analysts at Nomura Holdings advise investors to buy Canadian dollar versus yen as they expect that the Bank of Canada will raise the borrowing costs from 1% to 1.75% by the year-end, while Japan’s central bank will keep interest rates at the record low as Japanese economy is in a recession after March 11 earthquake. In addition, the specialists think that the Asian nation’s trade surplus is going to narrow. The pair CAD/JPY has already gained 3.1% this year. It returned to the levels in the 83....
05/25/2011 - 09:29
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the outlook for the European currency versus Swiss franc is either neutral or negative. In their view, the advance of the pair EUR/CHF will be limited by resistance 1.2485 and 1.2661. The specialists expect euro to fall to 1.2280 in the near term. As for the longer time period, the bank says that if the single currency breaks below this level will bring sterling down to the 1.2015 level that represents the base of the 4-year down channel and a...
05/24/2011 - 18:38
Goldman Sachs分析师2011年中国的经济增长预测由10%至9.4%调降之后,Credit Suisse, JPMorgan Chase, ING Group и Daiwa Securities,也在同月减弱了对中国经济的动态评测。经济学家调整预测的主要原因在于,中方政府已承诺尽一切努力遏制通胀上升。与此同时,货币紧缩政策将严重影响中国公司的收入。中国的主要股票指数上海综合指数今天下跌至一月份以来最低点。银行调高对该国今年的通胀预测由4.3%升至4.7%。专家认为,六月,居民消费价格将达到了5.6%的高峰,至八月不可能跌幅于5%。今年三月,中国的通货膨胀率已经达到5.4%为32个月以来的最高峰。当下中国的年存款率为3.25%,而贷款率则 为5.3%。从十月中旬开始中国利率上升4倍,而强制预订标准 是 8倍。Goldman预计,未来两个月内还将加息25个基点。据经济学家称,中国政府应该阻止该国经济活动放缓的迹象,终止进一步的紧缩货币政策。
05/24/2011 - 18:37
UBS外汇分析师认为,瑞士国家银行(瑞士央行)将不会提高利率,而当地货币兑欧元接近历史最高水平交易。据专家介绍,加强法郎只是一个暂时的现象。从他们的角度来看,与之不同的是, 依托于欧元区国家债券市场相对稳定这一局势,欧洲中央银行将会继续实行货币收紧政策。UBS预测,未来希腊和该地区其他国家负债的短期内不确定性将使EUR/CHF继续承受下跌压力。 

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