Market Analysis

05/27/2011 - 11:53
金融时报报道,在预期完成第二轮美联储量化宽松计划前减少美元空头部位。美联储购买债券计划,更多的美元充斥金融体系,将造成美元贬值,并已被广泛作为套利交易中的融资货币。美国货币供应量从2008年8月的$8440亿,在第一阶段量化宽松政策前,增加到$2,3900亿。Standard & Poor’s经济学家认为,在结束量化宽松政策将减轻过去几年对美元的压力,据此观点来看,可能会发生波动补仓的情况:投资者开始购买早起出售的美元,这可能意味着美元跌势将结束。据CME称, 5月17日前一周,投机者美元的空头头寸数量下降80亿美元,到255亿美元,是1月以来的最低水平。UBS专家指出,养老基金投注额下降。银行认为,美元将上升,因为美联储决定结束量化宽松,减少利差交易,以及恢复美元计价的亚洲中央银行和储备基金信心。Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ分析师强调,投资者对美国国会未能通过提高债务限额而感到担心 。正因为如此,由于对欧元区的债务危机的担忧,投资者风险偏好正在下降,安全货币需求正在增长,如日元,瑞士法郎和美元——预计未来几个月内,这些货币将得到加强。与此同时,...
05/27/2011 - 10:16
Former European Central Bank Chief Economist Otmar Issing, who worked in the ECB from 1999 till 2006, came up today with rather tough comments about Greece. According to him, the nation managed to enter the euro zone using deception. Issing says that the current crisis occurred due to the lack of monitoring and the absence of adequate sanctions for the violation of the currency union’s rules. In his view, the euro area could have avoided the turmoil if the required efforts were made. The...
05/27/2011 - 09:25
The single currency has recovered from Monday’s minimum at 1.3970 to the levels above 1.4200 trading versus the greenback. Technical analysts at Commerzbank regard the upward move of the pair EUR/USD as correction, though they expect euro to climb a little higher before failing at 1.4340/65 or 1.4570 representing 38.2% and 61/8% Fibonacci retracement. According to the bank, the general outlook remains bearish. The European currency is poised down to 1.3770 (38.2% retracement of the pair’s...
05/27/2011 - 09:02
US dollar bears are reducing their short positions on American currency ahead of the end of the Fed’s QE2 in June, reports Financial Times. The Federal Reserve’s bond purchases flooded the county’s financial system with the excessive amount of the national currency. The greenback has weakened becoming widely used as a funding currency in carry trades. The stock of money in the US has tripled from $844 billion in August 2008 before the Fed’s first round of quantitative easing began to more than...
05/27/2011 - 07:55
Analysts at BNZ claim that New Zealand’s dollar is currently one of the most demanded currency in the world: it surged versus its US counterpart from $0.7990 yesterday approaching today the $0.8200 area. The specialists note that kiwi is helped by the reports that China Investment Corp., Chinese sovereign wealth fund, has planned to invest 1.5% of its foreign-exchange reserves to in New Zealand’s assets. According to BNZ, NZD/USD is poised up to the post-float maximum at $0.8213 hit in February...
05/26/2011 - 15:06
单一货币兑美元今天完成五月内最大上升 — EUR/USD上涨0.7%,从$1.4068到$1.4195。中国将加大欧洲债券的购买力度,这消除了由于欧洲某些不确定性所带来的压力。     欧洲金融稳定基金负责人(European Financial Stability Facility, EFSF)Klaus Retling昨日表示,亚洲投资者,包括中国,可能获得EFSF在六月为葡萄牙贷款筹集资金所发行的其中一大部分债券。                                                                                                                       中国外汇储备领先世界其他国家,是持有美国国债最多的国家(根据美国财政部数据,美国资产负债金额在本月已达到1.145万亿美元。)                                                           Westpac分析师认为,尽管欧洲债务利息在短期内对欧元产生积极的影响,...
05/26/2011 - 11:51
The outlook for British pound depends on how the uncertainty about the Bank of England’s MPC decisions will resolve. Here there’s a significant change in the state of things: Andrew Sentance is leaving British central bank next week after a year of calling for the rate hike. During this year Sentance managed to convince 2 other MPC members – Spenser Dale and Martin Weal – that it’s necessary to raise the borrowing costs in UK in order to stem rising inflation that reached in April the maximal...
05/26/2011 - 11:00
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that euro managed to find support at 1.2270 trading versus Swiss franc after its fall from Friday’s maximum of 1.2646.   The specialists think that the pair EUR/CHF will be able to recover not higher than to 1.2644 or 1.2469/85. In their view, the mentioned resistance levels will constrain further advance of the sing currency. Chart. H4 EUR/CHF

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