Moody's Investors Service cut the ratings of Australia's big-four banks from Aa1 to Aa2. These banks are Westpac Banking Corp., Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., National Australia Bank and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
The pair AUD/USD declined on the news easing down from today’s maximum at 1.0665 to the levels in the 1.6000 area.
However, the analysts weren’t concerned much by Moody's move. Economists at Westpac note that the ratings agency has brought its estimate of...
The pair USD/JPY went down from 2-week maximum at 81.77 reached on Tuesday.
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that dollar’s advance during the last 8 days was an inverted “flag” and that small “spike high” versus Japanese yen made yesterday may be regarded as the new interim maximum.
The specialists expect the greenback to fall below 9-day MA at 80.92 retesting this week support at 80.00. According to the bank, it’s necessary to sell US currency at 81.50 stopping above 81.80 and...
Technical analysts at Commerzbank are bearish on EUR/USD. In their view, the single currency is on its way down to 1.3998 (200-week MA), 1.3770 and then to 1.3431/1.3375 (55-week MA and 11-month support).
The specialists claim that some bounces of euro are possible, but they won’t be of great significance to the general negative picture. According to the bank, upward moves will be limited by the resistance of 1.4225/65 and 1.4341.
Chart. Daily EUR/USD
Currency strategists at J.P. Morgan Asset Management give market players some advises on how to choose a safe haven currency. According to the specialists, it’s necessary to focus on 3 main features.
Firstly, this should be a currency of the country with small current account deficit or surplus as % of GDP. A surplus means the country does not require net capital inflows to offset trade-account outflows. Examples: most emerging Asian countries, Switzerland, Norway.
Secondly, safe havens are...
Mizuho实业银行技术分析师认为，GBP/USD持续两周下跌将刺激购买英镑。从他们的角度来看，周线图所有指标表明可以长期持仓。策略师预计，此情形至少持续到5月底。据Mizuho， GBP/USD支持水平为 1.6145，1.6050，1.5935和1.5820。阻力水平是1.6375，1.6425，1.6520和1.6600。专家建议买在1.6200水平买入英国货币，收停1.6100下方，下方盈利空间短线看至1.6500。该银行认为，GBP/USD将最终能够突破1.6500以上，而此后将面临1.6500/1.7000领域的强大阻力
Danske Bank货币战略家们相信，虽然单一货币在过去的一个月面临巨大压力，但息差交易是未来外汇市场的主流，与美元相比这将更有利于欧元专家认为，欧洲当局不支持希腊紧急债务重组，这将有助于消除投资者的焦虑。此外，根据Danske，希腊的债务问题将不会阻止欧洲央行为遏制通货膨胀继续实行的收紧货币政策。Danske希望欧洲央行提高七月利率。关于美元，由于美联储可能不会增加融资成本，其汇率仍将持续弱势。然而更多的欧元风险溢价使专家们预测，EUR/USD的汇率将有所下降：3个月的预测 — 1.50至1.48.。而6 — 12个月的预测为1.50和1.40到1.46和1.38。今年下半年美国货币将得到更多支持，这是由于六月，完成了美联储第二轮的量化宽松计划，这一计划加剧了美元疲软。
Technical analysts at UBS note that the trend for USD/CHF became neutral after it’s the greenback managed to rise from the record minimum in the 0.8550 area. The specialists claim that the outlook for the pair will become bullish if US currency breaks resistance in the 0.9000/12 zone.
Chart. Daily USD/CHF
Currency strategists at RBS claim that the scandal with IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn won’t affect the single currency as the institution’s decisions on such important issue as bailing out the indebted nation doesn’t depend on one singular individual but is collectively made. In their view, the pair EUR/USD will return upwards to $1.44.
Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch note that John Lipsky, who has stepped in for Mr. Strauss-Kahn at the IMF, is well regarded by market...