Market Analysis

07/01/2011 - 11:48
US dollar recovered from the record minimum versus Swiss franc at 0.8275 hit on Tuesday getting above 0.8450. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that some further rebound of the pair USD/CHF is quite possible noting the recent divergence on the RSI indicator. According to the specialists, on its way up the greenback will face resistance in the 0.8547/54 zone limited by the minimum of the beginning of May and May 31 maximum. The bank says that the negative pressure on the pair will ease...
07/01/2011 - 11:14
Technical analysts at Ueda Harlow believe that the single currency may approach next week 2-month maximum trading versus Japanese yen. The specialists note that this week the pair EUR/JPY broke above 21-day MA and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. In their view, the chart shows that the lines Senkou Span A and B that limit the Cloud are going to converge and compress Kumo at around the 116.60 yen level on around July 4. If euro enters the Cloud and stays inside it after Kumo turns negative flipping...
07/01/2011 - 10:24
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that if the single currency manages to hold above $1.4530 versus the greenback, it will be able to retest Fibonacci retracement at $1.4732. At the same time, the specialists think that the pair EUR/USD will more likely fall to the support at $1.4123. Strategists at Barclays Capital think that if euro breaks above $1.4550/1.4700, it will keep moving up. According to the bank’s forecast, the pair will trade at $1.50 in 3 months. Analysts at Societe Generale...
06/29/2011 - 15:36
Currency analysts at UBS note that the members of the Monetary Policy Committee who form the core of the Bank of England have significantly changed their views: those who stood at the middle ground even start thinking about further monetary stimulus in the form of asset purchases. As the rate expectations tend to determine exchange rates and the BoE rates are likely to stay at the record minimum for a long period of time, the specialists expect sterling to stay under pressure versus the...
06/29/2011 - 14:49
Canadian dollar was boosted by stronger than expected inflation data: consumer prices added 0.7% in May after 0.3% growth in April, while the forecast also was 0.3% increase. The y/y inflation reached the maximal level since March 2003 of 3.7% that’s above Bank of Canada’s 2% target. The nation’s core CPI rose by 1.8% on the annual basis in May, while economists were looking forward only to 1.5% advance. Analysts at CIBC World Market note that the market has had so far a very dovish view on...
06/29/2011 - 13:47
Even though the market's attention is currently focused on the situation in Greece, one should pay attention to the end of QE2 in the United States as it will also influence exchange rates. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch say that judging by the recent sharp decline in Treasury yields it’s possible to assume that some of the market’s participants have been looking forward to the QE3. In addition, according to the Fed funds futures contracts, investors are currently pricing in a rate...
06/29/2011 - 12:04
Australian dollar rose from Monday’s minimum versus the greenback at $1.0390 to the levels in the $1.0600 area (June 24 maximum). Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the pair AUD/USD came close to the key resistance in the 1.0620/55 zone (1-month resistance line). In their view, Aussie will retest these levels this week. As long as it closes the day below the mentioned region, the outlook will remain negative. If Australia’s currency manages to overcome $1.0655, it will be poised up to...
06/29/2011 - 11:27
Technical analysts at Commerzbank are still bearish on the single currency versus the greenback. The specialists regard the current advance of EUR/USD as consolidation. According to the bank, resistance for the pair is situated at the 55-day MA of $1.4404 and at the resistance line from May to June at $1.4549. As long as euro’s trading below the latter, the outlook for it will remain negative. The economists believe that the European currency is on its way down to the 200-week MA at $1.4017 and...

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