Market Analysis

05/19/2011 - 08:58
Currency strategists at Goldman Sachs reduced US dollar forecasts versus the single currency, Japanese yen and British pound due to the poor US economic data. The bank believes that the Federal Reserve won’t raise the borrowing costs until 2013. According to the specialists, the greenback will decline to $1.45 per euro in 3 months, to $1.50 in 6 months and $1.55 in a year. In addition, Goldman lowered 3-month estimate of the pair USD/JPY from 84 to 82 yen, 12-month prediction was also down from...
05/18/2011 - 19:25
J.P.Morgan Asset Management货币策略家就如何选择安全货币给出了一些建议。专家认为,有必要把重点放在三个此类货币的主要特征上。 首先,低赤字国家或经常账盈余国家的货币是安全的。贸易盈余意味着,国际贸易中,国家不需要通过净资本流入来弥补资金外流,这意味着货币的独立性。这包括亚洲发展中国家,瑞士和挪威的货币。 第二,盈利低的货币被认为是安全货币:当投资者对风险的胃口偏好时,他们借此类货币,投放在更多高收益货币上,当市场参与者都不愿意冒风险时,盈利低的货币,相反具有很大的需求量。流动性过剩成为安全货币的重要特征。 据J.P.Morgan分析师的建议,可以做出以下结论。谈到美元,需指出的是,虽然他并不满足第一个条件 — 美国的经常帐赤字 — 但这与低收入和高流动性的债券市场有关。在投资者避风险时期,这足以购买美国货币。瑞士法郎是避难的主要货币之一,尤其是当欧元区债务危机的恐慌发作时。日元也在此名单之列,国家庞大的公共债务以及由于近期加强货币,决定入场时机困难的原因,建议谨慎入场。 在亚洲发展中国家的货币中,J.P.Morgan将其分为中国人民币和新加坡元。...
05/18/2011 - 12:26
The advance of the pair EUR/USD was limited as the European finance ministers admitted yesterday that there’s a possibility that Greece may have to restructure its debt. Economists at SEB believe that if Greece is allowed to restructure one way or another, the single currency will get under severe pressure as the haircut may undermine investors’ confidence in the euro area. The specialists say that the market players will soon start doubting about how sensible is it to keep holding euro longs....
05/18/2011 - 11:22
Moody's Investors Service cut the ratings of Australia's big-four banks from Aa1 to Aa2. These banks are Westpac Banking Corp., Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., National Australia Bank and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The pair AUD/USD declined on the news easing down from today’s maximum at 1.0665 to the levels in the 1.6000 area. However, the analysts weren’t concerned much by Moody's move. Economists at Westpac note that the ratings agency has brought its estimate of...
05/18/2011 - 10:56
The pair USD/JPY went down from 2-week maximum at 81.77 reached on Tuesday. Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that dollar’s advance during the last 8 days was an inverted “flag” and that small “spike high” versus Japanese yen made yesterday may be regarded as the new interim maximum. The specialists expect the greenback to fall below 9-day MA at 80.92 retesting this week support at 80.00. According to the bank, it’s necessary to sell US currency at 81.50 stopping above 81.80 and...
05/18/2011 - 10:17
Technical analysts at Commerzbank are bearish on EUR/USD. In their view, the single currency is on its way down to 1.3998 (200-week MA), 1.3770 and then to 1.3431/1.3375 (55-week MA and 11-month support). The specialists claim that some bounces of euro are possible, but they won’t be of great significance to the general negative picture. According to the bank, upward moves will be limited by the resistance of 1.4225/65 and 1.4341.   Chart. Daily EUR/USD
05/18/2011 - 09:50
Currency strategists at J.P. Morgan Asset Management give market players some advises on how to choose a safe haven currency. According to the specialists, it’s necessary to focus on 3 main features. Firstly, this should be a currency of the country with small current account deficit or surplus as % of GDP. A surplus means the country does not require net capital inflows to offset trade-account outflows. Examples: most emerging Asian countries, Switzerland, Norway. Secondly, safe havens are...
05/17/2011 - 15:46
Mizuho实业银行技术分析师认为,GBP/USD持续两周下跌将刺激购买英镑。从他们的角度来看,周线图所有指标表明可以长期持仓。策略师预计,此情形至少持续到5月底。据Mizuho, GBP/USD支持水平为 1.6145,1.6050,1.5935和1.5820。阻力水平是1.6375,1.6425,1.6520和1.6600。专家建议买在1.6200水平买入英国货币,收停1.6100下方,下方盈利空间短线看至1.6500。该银行认为,GBP/USD将最终能够突破1.6500以上,而此后将面临1.6500/1.7000领域的强大阻力 

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