Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman, the oldest and largest private bank in the United States, believe that recent demand for Swiss franc was due to the fears that Greek crisis may have global consequences. According to them, now when the Greek government has won the confidence vote, the situation improved and euro will form a base and start rebounding.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank, however, are pessimistic about euro’s prospects versus franc. In their view, resistance for EUR/CHF is...
British pound fell to the 2-week minimum versus the greenback in the 1.6110 area.
According to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee June meeting released today, the policymakers voted 7-2 to keep the benchmark interest rate at the record minimum of 0.5%. In May the division of opinions was 6-3.
Strategists at Deutsche Bank regard the minutes as dovish. The central bank seems determined to keep the borrowing costs low in order to help the national economy recover. As a result, the...
Economists at BNP Paribas expect EUR/USD to rebound to $1.4500 in the short term. The banks says that the obstacles for euro seem to be much less great after Germany agreed to make significant concessions on the terms of the second bailout package for Greece and Papandreou's government won its confidence vote. According to BNP Paribas, if the Greek budget is passed in parliament next week, risk currencies and euro will surge.
Strategists at FX Concepts, the world’s largest currency hedge fund...
Analysts at Morgan Stanley revised down forecasts for some major currency pairs by the end of the year:
- For EUR/USD – from 1.49 to 1.36;
- For AUD/USD – from 1.12 to 1.01;
- For GBP/USD – from 1.62 to 1.49.
The specialists note that euro area’s economic outlook has deteriorated as the leading indicators tend to decline, investments inflows are slowing down. As a result, the single currency is going to stay under pressure.
In addition, the concerns about global...
The single currency weakened versus the greenback due to the concerns that it would be very difficult for George Papandreou’s government to pass the austerity package through parliament even after winning a confidence vote. The parliament debate on the issue will take place on June 28-30. Papandreou will meet his ministers today to discuss a draft law for the government’s 5-year fiscal plan, one of two laws needed to pass by the end of the month to qualify for EU aid.
Analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland believe that the Federal Reserve could have underestimated the negative factors affecting US economic growth as some of them may be not as transitory as the Fed has hoped.
In the first quarter American GDP rose by 1.8% on the annual basis, while the economists were looking forward to 2.2% advance.
It’s expected that US economy will expand by 2.3% in the second quarter and by 3.2% in the third one. RBS specialists claim that these figures may also be...
Analysts at Deutsche Bank claim that the single currency will stay in range of 0.80/0.90 versus British pound until the end of 2011.
The specialists say that, on the one hand, sterling will remain under pressure as UK economic weakness will prevent the Bank of England from tightening monetary policy through a sustained hiking cycle. On the other hand, concerns about peripheral euro zone’s nations will weight on euro limiting EUR/GBP on the upside.
As for the longer term, the bank expects the...
Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the bearish trend for the pair USD/CAD has finished when the greenback hit the minimum of 0.9445 on May 2.
The specialists claim that US dollar is currently trading within a clear minor uptrend channel versus loonie. In their view, the pair will reach 1.0208 in 6 months and climb to 200-week MA of 1.0592 in a year.
Chart. Daily USD/CAD