Economists at the Bank for International Settlements claim that nearly all reserve currencies may depreciate.
After studying the relationship between foreign-exchange turnover and per capita income the specialists came to the conclusion that the richer the country, the greater the turnover in their currency. As a result, it was shown that there is a relatively consistent relationship between forex turnover, trade, and GDP per capita – practically all the countries are found directly at the...
Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that in comparison with the USD/JPY volatile fluctuations seen in March, the pair is now going through a consolidation. As it was expected, dollar bounced from the top of the large “triangle” formation.
The specialists expect the greenback to remain today in range between 83.50 and 85.50. In their view, it’s necessary to buy US currency on the dips to 83.80 stopping below 83.45 and taking profit at 84.50 or maybe at 85.15.
Chart. Daily USD/JPY
Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that it seem that the British pound is unable to overcome resistance in the 1.6425/65 area trading versus the greenback. The mentioned zone represents the double Fibonacci retracement and the 2010 maximum.
The specialists think that sterling is now poised for a decline to 1.6180 and even lower mowing down towards 1.5963/1.5880.
According to the bank, the bearish pressure will ease if pound breaks above 1.6465. In such case the pair GBP/USD will get chance...
Analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland believe that Australian and New Zealand’s dollars will keep gaining versus their American counterpart during the second and third quarters of the year. Such forecast is based on the assumption that the US Federal Reserve won’t raise the interest rates and, consequently, the greenback will lack strength.
The specialists expect Aussie to reach the maximum of $1.10 by September 30 and then ease to $0.98 by the end of 2012. The kiwi is seen gaining to $0.84 in the...
Strategists at Societe Generale claim that the ECB rates stayed at the record low during the 2 years. In their view, the time has come for ECB to show that the borrowing costs won’t stay at the emergency level forever.
The key question is now the extent of the tension between the core inflation in the euro area, which remains very low at round 1%, and the rising non-core components that, according to the market’s expectations, have driven headline inflation in March up to 2.6%.
澳元兑日展现出了最大的超过过去4周元下跌，相对于美元也从一个高峰出现下跌。事实上，在日本政府提高了强大的地震和海啸核电站福岛- 1的最大受害者的危险程度之后, 投资者对高收益资产的需求开始下降。东京电力公司在声明中指出，由福岛到底- 1核电厂释放的辐射量，甚至可能超过切尔诺贝利。 尽管市场环境风险恶化，BNP Paribas分析师认为，AUD/USD的前景为，在一般情况下，澳大利亚继续保持积极状态的话,会有一切机会来恢复甚至向上运动。 专家的建议基于强大的中国贸易数据，建议保存可持续的对澳大利产品的需求。 此外，银行建议投资者要注意联邦储备系统的和平意见 – 也门，达德利和埃文斯 –这暗示着，$ 600亿美元的美联储定量宽松计划在六月完成后，将不会急于提高利率。货币策略师还指出，国际货币基金组织将在这个星期举行的 “大二十” 会议，国家可能会达成就解决全球失衡问题的协议，因此，外汇储备的多元化将继续刺激对澳元的需求.
在过去3周纽元兑美元达到了0.7846的水平。然而，BMO Capital战略家认为，一个强的上升时期宣告结束。 其中对NZD不利的因素可以区分为:地震,更糟糕的国家经济, 3月上旬下降的利率，利率，以及微不足道的经济指数。因此，如果在基金市场下跌和投资者对美元的风险偏好开始上升, 美元汇率将很快加强，尤其是相对于其竞争对手新西兰元，专家这么认为。 据BMO，需要在目前水平出售新西兰元，校准在0.7905,利润锁定在0.7630。
日元持续走强，在过去一天中显示出良好动态。在日本当局将福岛第一核电站风险提至最高水平后，日本货币由于大量获利回吐而升值。正如专家所说，日本的核辐射泄漏规模堪比切尔诺贝利灾难。七国干预日元，在市场参与者开始买回日元后，其兑美元汇率提高了1％，兑欧元提高了1.2％，而兑澳元提高了1.6％。USD/JPY从4月6日最高值85.62跌至目前的84.10一线，200日均线反弹到83.51。如果美元低于这个水平，那么USD/JPY下跌至81.98水平的可能性将增加，倾向于攀升测试38.2%斐波纳契回撤76.31阻力。Sumitomo Mitsui Banking专家指出，若计划这周举行的七国集团财政部长表明，G7将不准备承诺永久地帮助日本遏制本国货币增长，那么日元可能会持续走强。分析人士认为，日元可能测试80大关。State Street Global Markets经济学家指出，外国投资者购买日本股票多年，如果他们将出售日本股票，日元将贬值。