Analysts at Citigroup studied the correlation between the performance of US dollar and the nation’s economic data during the two years after Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy in 2008.
According to the specialists, the greenback rose and fell inversely to American economy gaining in times of its weakness as investors were buying dollar as a refuge. Then the demand for US currency fell as the Fed’s monetary stimulus programs encouraged the market’s risk appetite.
However, such relationship may be over...
The single currency bounced yesterday from the 1.4564 area representing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of May's decline consolidating just below 1.4700.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the pair EUR/USD is now poised to 1.472 that's the 78.6% retracement level. In their view, euro will likely fail at that point and retreat downwards.
Chart. H4 EUR/USD
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets note that the greenback began correcting upwards versus its Canadian counterpart on April 29 after the pair USD/CAD hit the minimum at 0.9445.
The specialists believe that at the current levels US currency is facing strong resistance, so its further advance will be limited, while the downside risks are increasing.
According to RBC, if dollar closes below the short-term trend line support at 0.9683, the bears will regain control over the market and the corrective...
Analysts at UBS think that although the bears tried yesterday to bring the greenback below 80.00 versus Japanese yen, the pair USD/JPY will be able to hold above the key psychological support level and recover to 90.00 during the next 3 months.
Currency strategists at MIG bank are also looking for US dollar’s rebound. The economists are bullish on the pair in the medium and long term expecting to see the new bullish cycle. In their view, if the greenback closes above 82.00 (post G7 intervention...
Economists at Goldman Sachs think that the single currency is strongly overvalued as it’s trading in the $1.4650 area versus the greenback. In their view, the fair rate for EUR/USD is situated at $1.20 regardless the risk premium that euro’s rate should include due to the euro area’s debt crisis. The analysts note the current dynamics of the pair is partly due to the weakness of US dollar.
Chart. Daily EUR/USD
On the weekly USD/CHF chart one can see a clear downtrend.
The bearish Cloud remains rather wide. All lines of the Indicator are directed sideways (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5). Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and Senkou Span A and B have lined up.
Chart Weekly USD/CHF
On the daily chart the outlook according to the Indicator is also bearish: the descending Cloud (3), the “dead cross” (2), the falling lines (1). The only hope of the bulls is the support of the downtrend line....
The prices fell below the Standard line. Resistance now will be provided by both Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. In addition, yen is still under pressure of the bearish Ichimoku Cloud that, however, tends to narrow gradually.
At the same time, there’s the “inverted hammer” formed on the weekly candle chart that leaves space for some rebound of the rate.
Chart. Weekly USD/JPY
From the first view on the daily USD/JPY chart the outlook seems more pessimistic: all the lines...
As it was expected, GBP/USD market’s consolidating. During the last week the prices once again returned to the Turning line (1) that acted as a support.
The “golden cross” formed by Tenkan and Kijun above Kumo is still in place (3). The increasing Ichimoku Cloud remains rather wide (4) that means that the bulls are still rather strong.
The Standard line remains horizontal (2) that points to a flat. The prices may push off from Tenkan-sen (1) and move higher. The next support...