EURUSD remains trapped in a broad 1.1620–1.1800 range as the greenback slides roughly 13% year‑to‑date, weighed down by trade uncertainty, swelling US fiscal deficits, and markets pricing deeper Fed cuts. With dollar short positions near two‑year highs, sentiment still tilts against USD.
Across the Atlantic, euro bulls find cautious support from fresh German‑led EU fiscal proposals and a slower‑than‑expected ECB easing path, hinted at by Vice President de Guindos. Yet looming US tariffs on EU goods threaten to undercut these gains, keeping the euro’s floor fragile.
Technically, EURUSD shows signs of waning momentum after failing near 1.1820, with downside risk building toward 1.1605–1.1625. A decisive break above 1.1820 could open a run toward 1.20, while a slip below 1.1620 risks deeper correction.
Traders now look to US tariff updates, ECB commentary, and incoming inflation data to guide the next decisive move.
EURUSD – H4 Timeframe
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EURUSD completed a double break of structure after having swept liquidity from the previous high, thus creating an SBR (Sweep-Break-Retest) pattern. The FVG (Fair Value Gap) is the current driving force for the bullish retracement, though the supply zone behind it is the point of focus for the bearish entry. The price action presents a confluence based on the trendline resistance, the 50-period moving average resistance, and the rally-base-drop supply zone, further confirming the bearish sentiment.
Direction: Bearish
Target- 1.16411
Invalidation- 1.17653
CONCLUSION
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